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TrendPointers Introduces An Economic Sentiment Measure That Can Help Forecast The Future Better. For economic planning, investment strategy, manufacturing, marketing, inventory plans and risk management, TrendPointers provides the most sensitive and timely measure of economic sentiment and how it will translate into eventual economic activity with a high level of accuracy. When the next sentiment shift occurs, positive or negative,TrendPointers will capture it as it is emerging and before it becomes the daily news.TrendPointers’ monthly report identifies the nature, intensity and direction of sentiment shifts for the overall economic environment and the Housing/construction sector and our “recession watch” TrendPointers Economic Sentiment Scorecard-TESS. The only biweekly monitor of our exclusive Sentiment Targets. Read the full description of TESS in "About TrendPointers". June 5, 2009 Sentiment Scorecard TrendPointers Sentiment Signals indicate economic sentiment and market confidence want to be optimistic, but the reality of housing and unemployment, and the great daily volatility of uncertainty still prevail.There is a definite momentum building to break out and up, but the quality of the sentiment is fragile as "uncertainty" remains dominant. The TESS Scorecard shows the progress towards Sentiment Targets over the last four biweekly periods. Complete Summary at SentimentTrends
TrendPointers Economic Recovery Commentary
The Age of Sentiment Economics The current economic crisis goes far beyond past recessions and touches far more people, sectors, and political issues than most Americans have seen in their lifetime. The severity of the crisis is not dispute, but the uniquely necessary element is restoration of a belief that recovery is possible and that a plan is in place today. This recovery is as much an economic plan as it is a marketing plan. The nature of public communications has changed since the last recession and sentiment has become the icon of our volatile information age. News and information comes at us 24 hours a day, seven days a week in multiple venues, with pervasive and contradictory opinions. Whether called sentiment or confidence, the indicators have become the highest order term to describe the cumulative body of opinions and expectations, the reflection of the popular mood and psychology. The sheer level of expert uncertainty or negativity overwhelms objective efforts to call for positive and supportive actions. Our current economic issues are not easily resolved and some, such as home values, will not revert to past levels in any foreseeable future. But what will it take to restore positive sentiment? The basic formula from marketing communications is simple: attitudinal changes typically precede behavioral change. A continuous stream of good news has one predictable effect, bad news another. Consumers, markets, and businesses react based on what they “believe” may occur in the future. The audiences for the continuous flow of news, commentary and predictions form opinions and plan their economic behavior based on the cumulative impact of all the information and personal experiences. And the normal tendency for people in a crisis situation like the current one is to at best to wait, not to act. Confidence and positive sentiment may be emotional markers but very real tactics in the age old process of persuasion. Economics used to be something that happened to you, now it’s fully participatory.The circumstances are severe, but the initial recovery regimen seems clear: establish leadership, promote the specifics, provide reassurance, and repeat it over and over so that we collectively can take the first step to recovery. We need to market recovery as well as enable it. Coming in July: what Sentiment Signals tells us about the look of the economic future. Rich Spitzer, Publisher
In the economic world there are few surprises, only information that you get too late. Sentiment is important because it’s not just a number.Sentiment is the one indicator that encompasses thecumulative impact of the continuous information flow that influences the mood, psychology and behavior of economic observers, business decision makers and consumers. In March, 2008, TrendPointers sentiment dataindicated the recession was real while the public acknowledgement waited until November. Improve the quality of your economic models. Consumer sentiment /confidence data are components of most economic models. TrendPointers provides a monthly trend report of emerging sentiment and translates it into near-term forecasts of economic activity.
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